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Jeff Davis
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Jeff Davis is a retired radio-TV journalist living in Gainesville, GA. Active in civic and political affairs,
he is past president of the Georgia Jaycees, former vice president of the US and the world Jaycees, former campaign chairman of the Georgia Republican party. He
voluntarily serves as chairman of the Georgia Heritage Council.
He is a collateral descendant of President Jefferson Davis.
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It Ain't Over Til It's Over -- Commentary by J. A. Davis
You've heard the expression featured in the title of this article. It
may have more significance in the current political scene in Georgia than you have been led to believe.
As an old campaigner, I know when there
seems to be no overwhelming movement to a majority you need to create
some momentum. One way is to develop your own poll which shows a tremendous lead,
playing to the old motivational factor, imitation.
Another to to start rolling out the endorsements you've been holding
back to make the appearance of a stampede toward support for your candidate.
The Perdue campaign has learned some of these lessons well, After
all, they're credentialed graduates of the GOP "Smile School" where many
years ago I helped instruct and develop manuals leading to the first
victories since Reconstruction by Georgia Republicans. Included was the development of the first
Republican statewide precinct organization that has served as a basis
for continued incremental growth to domination of the tallies on election day.
Our work was so effective a number of Democrats realized they couldn't
win being identified with the left, so they moved their affections to the Republicans
who accomodated them by moving more in the direction from whence the new arrivals came.
Let's examine some of the latest applications to the curriculum. One
poll with decided Republican bias pops up showing Sonny Perdue with a twenty point
lead over Mark Taylor. Nice try, but other polls narrow the Perdue lead to considerably less. More importantly,
they show the incumbent governor polling slightly less than a majority.
There are some factors to be be considered. First, the Taylor campaign
has been slow to stabilize the Democratic base. Anyone who believes that base will
remain around 35% come November hasn't looked at the historical internal
data from recent Georgia campaigns.
Additionally, there is a wild card that hasn't been completely revealed
in the race this year. The Libertarian candidate, Mike Hayes, continues
to move up in the numbers, having reached 8% in the latest
Zogby poll. That's about 5% higher than the Libertarians historically collect.
The big question is will this momentum continue? Ten or twelve percent
by the Libertarians could throw his race into a tizzy. A lot depends on
turnout in this off-year election. Such a showing could amount to upwards of 200,000 votes.
Then we look at the strategy of significant
endorsements. The teachers union, always a powerful force, has endorsed
Mark Taylor. In 2002 they were one of the factors credited with the Perdue upset
of Roy Barnes. If they hold their loyalty at the polls, they can
influence another 100,000 to 150,000 votes.
Another group that supported Perdue with
somewhere between 100,000 and 150,000 votes four years ago, the heritage groups
who prefer to be known as the Constitutional conservatives have come out
in opposition to Perdue without specifically endorsing an opponent. If
they didn't vote at all, called voting with your feet, Perdue would lose
the margin of victory he had over Barnes.
Lest anyone think this group can be dismissed, they are the ones who
walked with their feet from the flag referendum that Perdue and the
Republicans rigged to exclude the 1956 flag resulting in only 15% of the
registered voters approving the flag they preferred to substitute for the
flag they refused to allow the people to vote on, despite promises to the contrary.
This arbitrary effort to skirt around the "consent of the governed"
resulted in a Mason Dixon poll showing 79% of the voters, 4 out of 5, believed they had been denied a fair vote.
In fairness it should be mentioned among the latest endorsements is the
National Rifle Association which has endorsed Perdue. They endorsed Barnes four years
ago. They have about 85,000 members in Georgia and are another group generally
thought to influence 100,000 to 150,000 votes.
There are some other gun groups that often work in tandem with the NRA that
have not endorsed Perdue meaning the gun vote my be somewhat skewed in
November. Taylor does have support among individual gun owners.
When you total it up at this early juncture
you can reasonably come to the conclusion that the race for governor is
far from over, despite claims to the contrary.
When you remove as many of the combined total of 300,000-400,000 votes
that Perdue had four years ago that he most likely doesn't have now
(teachers and heritage conservatives) and offset this figure by a pick up from gun owners of say 100,000 votes, the Perdue
campaign is still looking at perhaps 250,000 votes they had four years ago they don't appear to have now.
Keep in mind with these votes Perdue defeated Barnes by 105,000 votes.
Much can happen between now and November 7th. The Perdue land scams are
having an effect. Ethics, or the lack thereof, could be a bigger factor than many
believe. As more and more word of the heavy contributions and influence in the Perdue campaign by the Atlanta
elite become more obvious, what appears to be an early lead by Perdue could diminish. If he stays under a majority, he
is vulnerable.
Now, a word to the wise. If you put your bets on the polls, any of
them, you're in jeopardy. Remember, Roy was the double digit winner of the pollsters
in 2002. The real polls proved them wrong by about 15%, does that figure ring a bell?
It ain't over til it's over. Has anyone seen the fat lady yet?
 Lying Fat Lady singing way too early
Jeff Davis is a retired radio-TV journalist living in Gainesville, GA. Active in civic and political affairs,
he is past president of the Georgia Jaycees, former vice president of the US and the world Jaycees, former campaign chairman of the Georgia Republican party. He
voluntarily serves as chairman of the Georgia Heritage Council.
He is a collateral descendant of President Jefferson Davis.
Related Links
Stranger Things have happened – J.A. Davis
Libertarian to force runoff? – 11Alive.com
Barnes' Revenge: The Return of the 'Butt Ugly' flag – Steve Scroggins
Perdue suggests vote on license tag design – ajc.com
Georgia re-thinking license plate – UPI.com
SONNY LIED: the Official Georgia State Sign - X-Files
Sonny LIED to US - sonnyLIED2.us – the website
SONNY LIED: The Official Georgia State Sign – X-Files
Boss Sonny Did! – X-Files
SONNY DID – Luckovich cartoon
Perdue quip about tax break draws Democratic criticism – AP
How tax law saved Perdue $100,000 – ajc.com
Recent Zogby Poll
Contact: Telephone 770 297-4788 P-6, 2363 North Cliff Colony Drive Gainesvlle,
GA 30501
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Copyright © 2003-2008, GeorgiaHeritageCouncil.org
Georgia Heritage Council | P-6 2363 North Cliff Colony Drive
Gainesville, GA 30501 | Phone: 770.297.4788 Email: chairman@GeorgiaHeritageCouncil.org
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